If the caretaker Prime Minister Tuilaepa Dr. Sailele Malielegaoi remains in power indefinitely despite losing the 2021 election, Samoa will have slid into dictatorship, says American political scientist, Dr. Steven Levitsky.

Admitting he is “not an expert on Samoa”, Dr. Levitsky is Professor of Government at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts in the U.S. and best-selling co-author of "How Democracies Die".

It has been more than three months since Samoa’s citizens went to the polls. After the official count of ballots, leader of the Faatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (F.A.S.T.) political party Fiame Naomi Mataafa emerged as the nation’s Prime Minister-elect.

Despite court orders and calls from international organisations and several governments to uphold the rule of law, adhere to democratic processes and convene Parliament – Parliament has not convened and the political crisis continues.

It’s a “democratic crisis,” said Dr. Levistsky in an interview with the Samoa Observer.

And the behaviour of Tuilaepa and that of the His Highness Head of State, His Highness Tuimalealiifano Sualauvi Va'aletoa II, is not democratic, he said.

“I am not an expert on Samoa. This is certainly a serious democratic crisis, and the behavior of both the Prime Minister and the Head of State can certainly be deemed anti-democratic,” said Dr. Levitsky.

“The H.R.P.P. (and Tuilaepa) had been dominant for a very long time, and they clearly did not expect to lose power in 2021. Their reaction has undermined the democratic process.”  

The professor’s research interests include political parties, authoritarianism and democratization, and weak and informal institutions, with a focus on Latin America, Harvard explains on its website.

Accepting defeat is essential in a democracy, Dr. Levitsky said.

He added that the reaction of the H.R.P.P. to the results of the 2021 general election is similar to former U.S. President Donald H. Trump’s reaction to his defeat in 2020. 

“It is essential in a democracy that losers accept defeat and not seek to remain in power via other means. What the H.R.P.P. has done is similar to Donald Trump's reaction to defeat in the U.S., which has weakened U.S. democracy. Something similar is happening in Peru right now,” said Dr. Levitsky.

“It's too early to say whether this is some kind of global trend, but again, any time the incumbent party loses and refuses to accept defeat and seeks to remain in power by other means, democracy is in crisis. That is Samoa today.”

The Professor is currently engaged in research on the durability of revolutionary regimes, the relationship between populism and competitive authoritarianism, problems of party-building in contemporary Latin America, and party collapse and its consequences for democracy in Peru.

He is notable for his work on competitive authoritarian regimes and informal political institutions.

But it is too soon to call Tuilaepa a dictator, the Professor says, as there is the chance Samoa would solve its crisis in a democratic way.

Samoa is still “mid-crisis”, while there is a decent amount of international pressure on the Head of State to open Parliament, he noted.

But if Tuilaepa and the Head of State successful delay Parliament from meeting, Samoa's democratic history will have been derailed.

“That said, it may be too soon to call the P.M. a dictator and the regime a dictatorship. Samoa is still mid-crisis, and from what I can tell, there is a decent amount of international pressure on the Head of State to open parliament,” Dr. Levitsky said.

“It still seems possible that the crisis will be resolved in a democratic manner, and that Samoa will continue to be a model democracy.  But if the P.M. and Head of State persist and are successful in thwarting this election, democracy will have been (at least temporarily) derailed.”

It would be at that moment that Samoa will have slid into dictatorship, he said:

“If the P.M. remains in power indefinitely despite losing an election, then I think you can say Samoa has slid into dictatorship."

Dr. Levitsky holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley in the U.S.