Prices of goods and services in Samoa will continue to rise according to projections made by the Asian Development Bank in its April 2026 Outlook.

The ADB report stated that consumer prices are projected to rise by 1.8 per cent in and 4.0 per cent in 2027.

“In the first eight months of the 2026 financial year, inflation averaged 1.5 per cent, driven by lower prices of imported goods partially offset by higher domestic prices for items such as coffee and coconut. However, the heavy reliance on imported fuel and rising global oil prices will likely feed domestic inflation in the final months of FY2026 and into FY2027—raising the cost of food and fuel for transport of imported goods, “ the report stated.

“The conflict in the Middle East will continue to increase price pressures into the first quarter of FY2027 and gradually normalise thereafter.”

The report also highlighted that budget delays and weak execution weigh on growth.

The ADB stated that delays in passing the budget have slowed major spending that will reduce public spending’s contribution to growth in FY2026.

“Operationalising asset management plans should help improve future service provision. Risks tilt to the downside. Risks to the forecast stem from continued exposure to climate-related shocks, shifts in migration policies among key destination countries, slow public investment project implementation, and spillovers from the ongoing Middle East crisis that could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on the economic outlook.”

The ADB also noted that Samoan economy grew by 4.2 per cent in FY2025, slightly down from 4.8 per cent in FY2024, partly due to the March 2025 energy crisis that disrupted business activity.

“Nonetheless, growth continued to be supported by remittance inflows that boosted household incomes and spending, government consumption, and rising tourist arrivals that stimulated services,” stated the ADB.

“FY2025 growth was supported by a strong 18.7 per cent rise in transport services from tourist arrivals, freight activity linked to higher imports, and Samoa Airways restructuring. Visitor arrivals increased by 2.0 per cent in 2025.

“Earnings from tourism expanded by 4.6 per cent in FY2025. However, the economy continues to be constrained by limited port capacity, which contributed to low fisheries output.”

Private remittance inflows increased by 2.9 per cent to $902.8 million in FY2025, highlighting the critical role played by diaspora transfers in sustaining household spending and providing external buffers. Remittances helped narrow the primary income deficit, resulting in the current account surplus rising to $198.6 million, up from $142.1 million in FY2024.