Finally, the two political heavyweights, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi and Laauli Leuatea Schmidt, agree on something. This is a rare occurrence. The two, in their way, never to be mistaken for a consensus, have called for an early election.

Again, not to be mistaken for them to have met and agreed on the way forward, but in different forums, both have said the only way forward for the nation is to go to the polls early. They both tried to do that through a vote of no confidence, and neither succeeded, as we know they would not agree to something initiated not by them.

They both may be right. The government, although in place, is still an extraordinary occurrence where Fiame Naomi Mataafa is the prime minister without a majority backing. As much as Fiame and her cabinet are trying to move the nation forward, it is not happening at the pace it should. The ruling party is divided, causing further political divisions among the people. This has been made worse by Fiame’s shyness of the public limelight, where she has failed to engage with the public. It is an unprecedented situation in Samoa’s political history.

In his latest commentary, La’auli told the media that parliament needs to be dissolved early and for all elected representatives to return to their constituencies to elect their leaders, even if that should be done before the end of the term.

La’auli said the government can no longer make the right decisions, there is ongoing disagreement, and there is no unity. He claimed that an election would bring peace to the country. “This dispute is not the answer, it will only create uncertainty and disagreement…” he said. La’auli said continuous accusations and defamation have left the country in the dark about what is right.

That is not far from the truth, however, Laauli’s political ambition and career depend on an early election. Laauli faces political uncertainty because of the pending court cases, which are criminal in nature. An early election could be a ticket out of the court cases. Both cases are set for trial this year, and if convicted, it could mean that he may not be able to contest the election. This could also impact Faʻatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) Party, as Laauli is the definite heavyweight who people listen to. He has a huge political following to the extent that some followers say he is chosen by God. Laauli may have his own reasons calling for an early election. After all, this is politics.

With the FAST fragmented, Tuilaepa and the Human Rights Protection Party know that they have to strike while the iron is hot. There are inklings of a new political party led by the current FAST government group, and there are words that some HRPP stalwarts could end up on that side. For now, these are just words in the wind, and this could happen if time is allowed for the FAST government, that is, Fiame and the cabinet, to continue until next year. HRPP is also right in pointing out the division caused by the current impasse and people’s needs not being looked after. This is also the perfect time to blame the FAST party for the poor decisions during the HRPP reign. Tuilaepa knows the timing is right. An early election could be in favour of the HRPP.

For Fiame and the cabinet, they are looking to pass the national budget this month and hopefully amend the much-needed electoral laws for better electoral practices. They would also look at taking credit for major infrastructure and investment announcements planned for the latter part of the year. These things carry election points, and then look at dissolving the parliament. This allows the group to register their new party, if they intend to contest, and with the way things are looking, they surely would, confirm the head-hunted candidates and be in a better place to contest the election. They may also look at an early election but not as early as Tuilaepa and Laauli want.

The national budget allows Tuilaepa and Laauli an opportunity to dissolve parliament. If the budget is not passed, then parliament gets dissolved, and 90 days later, we are back at the polls. This will only happen if Tuilaepa and Laauli vote against the budget. This will have a few downsides, such as using an outdated electoral roll and not allowing people who turned 21 after the last election to vote, but the Office of the Electoral Commissioner has said they are ready for any scenario.

It’s just a waiting game now.