The euphoria that erupted in the public gallery of the New Zealand House of Parliament two weeks ago when the Bill to Remove the Samoa (Western Samoa) Citizenship Act 1982 passed its first reading may be premature.

There is a long process to go through before the bill comes back to the House for the third and final reading and debate, assuming it survived the second reading. If the vote is lost, that will be the end of the matter. If it is won, it will then be sent to the Governor-General for royal assent and becomes Act.

The Bill in its present form may be dramatically changed by the time it goes back to Parliament for the second reading, probably next year, as it’s anticipated there will be a lot of people and groups making submissions to the select committee. Amongst them may well be some of our own people from here. There will also be legal experts who will argue that enacting a law that is retroactive may create a problematic precedent. Senior public sector officials will also be advising the Select Committee about the impact of repealing the Samoa Citizenship Act on existing government policies and the mayhem it may cause at the time when the Government is trying to streamline its immigration policy.

National Party MP Cameron Brewer, whose party was caught by surprise, by Act and NZ First supporting the Bill, has already hinted at this saying that it will create a legal precedent. "Our concern is that it does create a number of unprecedented measures, and it also creates a situation where we have got a focus at the moment on managing the immigration settings and adopting them accordingly to fit today's demands." (Radio NZ News). The National Party is worried that it will not be just the ‘5000’ or so Samoans born between 1924 to 1949 still alive who will become citizens, but their children as well once they register for citizenship, and their children’s children.

The real surprise for me is the right-wing Act Party supporting MP Tuiono’s Bill. Over the years, they have been vehemently against any policy that appears to confer on Maori and Pasifika peoples any privilege or benefit. Last August, Act Leader David Seymour said the best thing to happen to the Ministry for Pasifika Peoples is to blow it up after it was revealed that it had spent NZ$40, 000 on farewelling its Chief Executive Officer. That caused the National Party to distance itself from Seymour and for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to public state that he supports the Ministry of Pacific Peoples.

Along with populous Winston Peters, right-wing David Seymour has been responsible for dismantling the Ministry of Pasifika Peoples and has been a strong advocate for the National Party-led Coalition Government move to roll back some of the initiatives designed to improve the health and socio-economic situation of Maori and Pasifika peoples.

So, what brought about the decision by both Act and NZ First to support the Bill?

The Act Party over the years, from Don Brash (Iwi or Kiwi?), Rodney Hyde, Jamie Whyte to David Seymour has been engaged in dog whistle racialist politics labelling past governments policies to help Maori and Pasifika people as racist. Its support for the Bill at the first reading is therefore nothing more than a façade to mask its racism. And that’s where it will end. Says ACT's Parmjeet Parmar: "We believe in fairness ... We would like to hear from submitters; what submitters have to say on this bill. We would also like to see what advisers have to say on this bill. Our support is at this stage only for the first reading.”

Its worth noting that Asians now make up 15.5% of the New Zealand population, most of whom support Act and National. They are already unhappy with what they see as favouritism towards Pasifika peoples over other immigrant groups and some have been making noises about Samoans becoming eligible for NZ citizenship immediately upon being granted permanent resident, while everyone else has to wait for 5 years.

Keep an eye out when the Bill, which will be heavily amended, comes back to the House for the second reading. Act will not support it. Like National, they will argue that passing it into law will create a problematic precedent.

Winston Peters has a strong interest in the Pacific and may decide to allow his MPs a ‘conscience vote’ while at the same time, reminding them of where their base-support comes from, which is the white elderly group of voters who may not look kindly on New Zealand First helping vote this Bill into law.

Given all this, my gut feeling is that Bill will not survive the second reading.

So, hold the celebration.